{"id":1366,"date":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/uncategorized\/five-forces-shaping-wealth-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","slug":"piec-czynnikow-ksztaltujacych-bogactwo-w-2026-roku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/pl\/wealth-management\/global-wealth-planning\/five-forces-shaping-wealth-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Pi\u0119\u0107 czynnik\u00f3w kszta\u0142tuj\u0105cych bogactwo w 2026 roku"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/>\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<style>body.single-post .cm-featured-image { display: none !important; }<\/style>\n\n<p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Spowolnienie gospodarcze, kt\u00f3rego wielu inwestor\u00f3w obawia\u0142o si\u0119 na pocz\u0105tku 2026 roku, nie nast\u0105pi\u0142o. Globalny wzrost gospodarczy utrzymuje si\u0119, handel nadal si\u0119 rozwija, a rynki akcji pozostaj\u0105 sprzyjaj\u0105ce. Jednak sytuacja w tym roku sta\u0142a si\u0119 trudniejsza do przewidzenia. Rz\u0105dy zaci\u0105gaj\u0105 coraz wi\u0119ksze po\u017cyczki, wzros\u0142y rentowno\u015bci d\u0142ugoterminowych obligacji, Europa przeznacza znaczne \u015brodki na obronno\u015b\u0107 i infrastruktur\u0119, sztuczna inteligencja poch\u0142ania kapita\u0142 w kilku klasach aktyw\u00f3w, a rynki prywatne wci\u0105\u017c borykaj\u0105 si\u0119 z problemem zapewnienia inwestorom wystarczaj\u0105cych zwrot\u00f3w. Cech\u0105 wsp\u00f3ln\u0105 wszystkich tych zjawisk jest cena i dost\u0119pno\u015b\u0107 kapita\u0142u.<\/span><\/p><h3 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:14pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Warto o tym pami\u0119ta\u0107<\/span><\/h3><ul style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;\"><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Globalny wzrost gospodarczy okaza\u0142 si\u0119 silniejszy ni\u017c si\u0119 obawiano, ale d\u0142ugoterminowy kapita\u0142 sta\u0142 si\u0119 dro\u017cszy. Rentowno\u015bci trzydziestoletnich obligacji skarbowych w sze\u015bciu gospodarkach grupy G7 osi\u0105gn\u0119\u0142y najwy\u017cszy poziom od co najmniej 15 lat, a MFW przewiduje, \u017ce do 2029 r. globalny d\u0142ug publiczny osi\u0105gnie poziom 100 procent PKB.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Handel nie uleg\u0142 spadkowi, a jedynie zmieni\u0142 kierunek. We wrze\u015bniu wska\u017anik handlu towarowego WTO wyni\u00f3s\u0142 102,0, czyli powy\u017cej trendu i wi\u0119cej ni\u017c w czerwcu, do czego przyczyni\u0142 si\u0119 silny popyt na komponenty zwi\u0105zane ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Europa stara si\u0119 sfinansowa\u0107 wydatki na obronno\u015b\u0107, infrastruktur\u0119 i bezpiecze\u0144stwo energetyczne, podczas gdy jej gospodarka ro\u015bnie w tempie poni\u017cej 1 procenta, a inflacja ponownie osi\u0105gn\u0119\u0142a poziom 3 procent.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Sztuczna inteligencja przesta\u0142a by\u0107 jedynie tematem technologicznym, a sta\u0142a si\u0119 cz\u0119\u015bci\u0105 cyklu finansowego. Jej rozw\u00f3j wspiera wzrost gospodarczy i handel, jednak wysokie wyceny, wi\u0119ksza d\u017awignia finansowa i znaczne nak\u0142ady kapita\u0142owe nie pozostawiaj\u0105 zbyt wiele miejsca na rozczarowuj\u0105ce wyniki.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Fundusze private equity nadal inwestuj\u0105 \u015brodki, ale mo\u017cliwo\u015bci wyj\u015bcia z inwestycji s\u0105 nadal nieliczne. To sprawia, \u017ce p\u0142ynno\u015b\u0107 finansowa nabiera wi\u0119kszego znaczenia dla rodzin, kt\u00f3re ju\u017c zainwestowa\u0142y w aktywa d\u0142ugoterminowe.<br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ul><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Na pocz\u0105tku 2026 roku \u0142atwo by\u0142o wymieni\u0107 oczywiste zagro\u017cenia: c\u0142a, d\u0142ug publiczny, konflikty geopolityczne, s\u0142aby wzrost gospodarczy w Europie oraz drogie akcje sp\u00f3\u0142ek technologicznych. Dziewi\u0119\u0107 miesi\u0119cy p\u00f3\u017aniej okaza\u0142o si\u0119, \u017ce niekt\u00f3re z tych obaw by\u0142y uzasadnione, jednak nie doprowadzi\u0142y one do spodziewanego przez wielu za\u0142amania koniunktury.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OECD przewiduje obecnie, \u017ce \u015bwiatowa gospodarka wzro\u015bnie o <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">2,9 procent w tym roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. W pierwszej po\u0142owie roku tempo wzrostu gospodarczego gwa\u0142townie spad\u0142o, jednak kryzys energetyczny na Bliskim Wschodzie spowodowa\u0142 mniejsze szkody ni\u017c pocz\u0105tkowo si\u0119 obawiano, poniewa\u017c kraje wykorzysta\u0142y zapasy, znalaz\u0142y alternatywne \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142a dostaw i skorzysta\u0142y ze wsparcia fiskalnego. Wydatki na sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0119 wspar\u0142y inwestycje, produkcj\u0119 i handel. Wzrost gospodarczy utrzyma\u0142 si\u0119, ale rz\u0105dy, przedsi\u0119biorstwa i inwestorzy finansuj\u0105 si\u0119 obecnie po wy\u017cszych stopach procentowych.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">01 D\u0142ug publiczny wp\u0142ywa na wycen\u0119 kapita\u0142u<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/-\/media\/files\/publications\/fiscal-monitor\/2026\/april\/english\/text.pdf?\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Mi\u0119dzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Globalny d\u0142ug publiczny osi\u0105gn\u0105\u0142 poziom nieco poni\u017cej <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">94 procent PKB w 2025 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, a MFW przewiduje obecnie, \u017ce osi\u0105gnie on poziom <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">100 procent do 2029 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, czyli o rok wcze\u015bniej ni\u017c przewidywano w zesz\u0142ym roku. Dodatkowym obci\u0105\u017ceniem s\u0105 wydatki na obron\u0119, zobowi\u0105zania socjalne, strategiczna polityka przemys\u0142owa oraz wy\u017csze koszty odsetkowe. Konflikt na Bliskim Wschodzie spowodowa\u0142 pojawienie si\u0119 kolejnych koszt\u00f3w w postaci dotacji energetycznych, wsparcia bud\u017cetowego oraz os\u0142abienia finans\u00f3w publicznych w gospodarkach najbardziej nara\u017conych na jego skutki.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OECD podaje, \u017ce rentowno\u015bci d\u0142ugoterminowych obligacji skarbowych w wielu gospodarkach wzros\u0142y do najwy\u017cszych poziom\u00f3w od <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">15 lat lub wi\u0119cej<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Rentowno\u015bci trzydziestoletnich obligacji utrzymuj\u0105 si\u0119 na takich poziomach w sze\u015bciu gospodarkach grupy G7. Cz\u0119\u015bciowo wzrost ten wynika z obaw o sytuacj\u0119 bud\u017cetow\u0105, a niezwykle intensywna emisja obligacji przez przedsi\u0119biorstwa z bran\u017cy technologicznej stanowi dodatkowe \u017ar\u00f3d\u0142o popytu na d\u0142ugoterminowe finansowanie.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Wy\u017csze rentowno\u015bci obligacji skarbowych maj\u0105 wp\u0142yw na kredyty hipoteczne, po\u017cyczki korporacyjne, kredyty prywatne i finansowanie nieruchomo\u015bci, a jednocze\u015bnie podnosz\u0105 stop\u0119 zwrotu, jakiej inwestorzy oczekuj\u0105 od funduszy prywatnych i akcji; po dekadzie taniego pieni\u0105dza w 2026 roku pytanie nie brzmi ju\u017c, gdzie ulokowa\u0107 dodatkowy kapita\u0142, ale co dana inwestycja oferuje ponad stop\u0119 zwrotu, jak\u0105 mo\u017cna ju\u017c uzyska\u0107 z aktyw\u00f3w p\u0142ynnych.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Co warto obejrze\u0107 do ko\u0144ca roku:<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> rentowno\u015bci d\u0142ugoterminowych obligacji skarbowych, a nie tylko stopy procentowe. Wy\u017csze koszty refinansowania powoduj\u0105, \u017ce przedsi\u0119biorstwa i w\u0142a\u015bciciele nieruchomo\u015bci dysponuj\u0105 mniejsz\u0105 ilo\u015bci\u0105 got\u00f3wki, a inwestorzy s\u0105 sk\u0142onni zap\u0142aci\u0107 mniej za ich aktywa.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">02 Firmy na nowo kszta\u0142tuj\u0105 globalne \u0142a\u0144cuchy dostaw<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/wtoi_09sep26_481_e.htm?\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u015awiatowa Organizacja Handlu<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">C\u0142a nie doprowadzi\u0142y do tak oczywistego wycofania si\u0119 z globalizacji, jakiego wielu si\u0119 spodziewa\u0142o. Barometr handlu towarowego WTO osi\u0105gn\u0105\u0142 poziom <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">102,0 we wrze\u015bniu<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, co stanowi wzrost w stosunku do poziomu 101,7 odnotowanego w czerwcu i przekracza poziom 100, kojarzony ze wzrostem zgodnym z trendem. Najlepszy wynik odnotowano w sektorze komponent\u00f3w elektronicznych, do czego przyczyni\u0142 si\u0119 popyt zwi\u0105zany z inwestycjami w sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0119. Globalny handel towarowy utrzymuje si\u0119 na wy\u017cszym poziomie, ni\u017c sugerowa\u0142aby to sytuacja polityczna.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Firmy na nowo wytyczy\u0142y trasy, kt\u00f3rymi przebiega \u015bwiatowy handel. Poszerzaj\u0105 grono dostawc\u00f3w, zmieniaj\u0105 trasy dostaw, przenosz\u0105 monta\u017c i zbli\u017caj\u0105 cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 produkcji do klient\u00f3w. Ograniczenia eksportowe i c\u0142a dwustronne nadal zak\u0142\u00f3caj\u0105 \u0142a\u0144cuchy dostaw, ale firmy raczej je reorganizuj\u0105, ni\u017c wycofuj\u0105 si\u0119 z handlu mi\u0119dzynarodowego. OECD informuje, \u017ce handel towarowy odzyska\u0142 r\u00f3wnowag\u0119 po pocz\u0105tkowych zak\u0142\u00f3ceniach spowodowanych konfliktem na Bliskim Wschodzie, czemu sprzyja\u0142y dostawy z Azji zwi\u0105zane ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105, a jednocze\u015bnie zacz\u0119\u0142a si\u0119 poprawia\u0107 sytuacja w handlu niezwi\u0105zanym ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Rynek krajowy danej sp\u00f3\u0142ki cz\u0119sto niewiele m\u00f3wi o tym, sk\u0105d pochodz\u0105 jej przychody, koszty i ryzyko finansowe. Przedsi\u0119biorstwo notowane na francuskiej gie\u0142dzie mo\u017ce zaopatrywa\u0107 si\u0119 w Azji, prowadzi\u0107 intensywn\u0105 sprzeda\u017c w Stanach Zjednoczonych i zaci\u0105ga\u0107 kredyty w dolarach; szwajcarska firma przemys\u0142owa mo\u017ce by\u0107 uzale\u017cniona od importowanych komponent\u00f3w i popytu w strefie euro. Fundusze oznaczone r\u00f3\u017cnymi etykietami regionalnymi mog\u0105 nadal posiada\u0107 udzia\u0142y w przedsi\u0119biorstwach nara\u017conych na ryzyko zwi\u0105zane z tymi samymi dostawcami, walutami i rynkami ko\u0144cowymi.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Przychody, produkcja, dostawcy i waluty daj\u0105 ja\u015bniejszy obraz ryzyka geograficznego ni\u017c gie\u0142da, na kt\u00f3rej notowany jest dany papier warto\u015bciowy. Przedsi\u0119biorstwa rodzinne odczuwaj\u0105 t\u0119 ekspozycj\u0119 bezpo\u015brednio w swoich ksi\u0119gach: c\u0142a podnosz\u0105 koszty produkcji, wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na decyzje dotycz\u0105ce zaopatrzenia, zmniejszaj\u0105 popyt lub obni\u017caj\u0105 mar\u017ce.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Co warto obejrze\u0107 do ko\u0144ca roku:<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> eksport niezwi\u0105zany ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105. Je\u015bli wska\u017aniki te wzrosn\u0105, wzrost handlu wykroczy poza ramy cyklu technologicznego; je\u015bli pozostan\u0105 na niskim poziomie, o\u017cywienie gospodarcze w du\u017cej mierze nadal b\u0119dzie zale\u017ca\u0142o od popytu zwi\u0105zanego ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">03 Europa wydaje pieni\u0105dze, zanim gospodarka odzyska\u0142a tempo wzrostu<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142a: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/news-and-events\/articles\/news\/2026\/07\/07\/defence-investment-update-record-spending-in-europe-and-canada\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">NATO<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> oraz <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/projections\/html\/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.mt.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Europejski Bank Centralny<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Europejscy cz\u0142onkowie NATO oraz Kanada zwi\u0119kszyli podstawowe wydatki na obronno\u015b\u0107 o prawie <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">20 procent w uj\u0119ciu realnym w 2025 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Zgodnie z zobowi\u0105zaniem uzgodnionym w Hadze sojusznicy zamierzaj\u0105 przeznaczy\u0107 <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">3,5 procent PKB na podstawowe wydatki na obronno\u015b\u0107<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> i jeszcze jeden <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">1,5 procent w ramach szerszych inwestycji zwi\u0105zanych z obronno\u015bci\u0105 i bezpiecze\u0144stwem do 2035 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Przewiduje si\u0119, \u017ce ju\u017c w 2026 r. pi\u0119ciu sojusznik\u00f3w osi\u0105gnie poziom 3,5%, natomiast 17 z nich ma zrealizowa\u0107 szerszy cel wynosz\u0105cy 1,5%.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Wydatki na obronno\u015b\u0107 obejmuj\u0105 \u0142\u0105czno\u015b\u0107, cyberbezpiecze\u0144stwo, logistyk\u0119, porty, przemys\u0142 lotniczy i kosmiczny, moce produkcyjne oraz energetyk\u0119, natomiast bezpiecze\u0144stwo energetyczne wymaga sieci energetycznych, wytwarzania energii i jej magazynowania. Rz\u0105dy wspieraj\u0105 r\u00f3wnie\u017c strategiczne moce produkcyjne przemys\u0142u po latach, w kt\u00f3rych Europa w wi\u0119kszym stopniu polega\u0142a na imporcie.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">EBC przewiduje, \u017ce PKB strefy euro wzro\u015bnie jedynie o <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">0,9 procenta w 2026 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, podczas gdy \u015brednia inflacja wynosi <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">3,0 procenta<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> i osi\u0105ga <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">3,6 procent w czwartym kwartale<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. \u015arednie ceny hurtowe energii elektrycznej w za\u0142o\u017ceniach na wrzesie\u0144 wynosz\u0105 <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">108,7 euro za MWh<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, czyli o ponad 21 euro wi\u0119cej ni\u017c zak\u0142adano w czerwcu. W odpowiedzi na ponowne nasilenie presji inflacyjnej EBC podni\u00f3s\u0142 10 wrze\u015bnia trzy podstawowe stopy procentowe o 25 punkt\u00f3w bazowych.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Wykonawcy z sektora obronnego, operatorzy sieci energetycznych, koncerny in\u017cynieryjne, deweloperzy infrastruktury oraz wybrane przedsi\u0119biorstwa przemys\u0142owe rywalizuj\u0105 o \u015brodki, kt\u00f3re jeszcze kilka lat temu praktycznie nie istnia\u0142y na tak\u0105 skal\u0119, podczas gdy kapita\u0142 prywatny nap\u0142ywa do tych samych sektor\u00f3w, poniewa\u017c g\u0142\u0119boko zad\u0142u\u017cone rz\u0105dy nie s\u0105 w stanie samodzielnie sfinansowa\u0107 wszystkich projekt\u00f3w.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Inwestorzy musz\u0105 nadal odr\u00f3\u017cnia\u0107 podpisane zam\u00f3wienia i sfinansowane projekty od zobowi\u0105za\u0144 politycznych, kt\u00f3re nie przynios\u0142y jeszcze przep\u0142yw\u00f3w pieni\u0119\u017cnych.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Co warto obejrze\u0107 do ko\u0144ca roku:<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> zam\u00f3wienia w sektorze obronnym i infrastrukturalnym, a tak\u017ce koszty energii. Rosn\u0105ca liczba zam\u00f3wie\u0144 zacz\u0119\u0142aby przek\u0142ada\u0107 si\u0119 na przychody firmy, podczas gdy wysokie ceny energii utrzymywa\u0142yby koszty finansowania i koszty operacyjne na wysokim poziomie.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">04 Koszty zwi\u0105zane ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105 wykraczaj\u0105 daleko poza sam\u0105 technologi\u0119<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en\/full-report.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OECD<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Wed\u0142ug OECD inwestycje w centra danych i sprz\u0119t technologiczny przyczyni\u0142y si\u0119 do wzrostu gospodarczego w drugim kwartale w Stanach Zjednoczonych, Kanadzie i Australii. Producenci p\u00f3\u0142przewodnik\u00f3w, m.in. z Korei i Japonii, odnotowali wzrost eksportu; podobnie by\u0142o w przypadku Chin. Produkty zwi\u0105zane ze sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0105 pomog\u0142y w o\u017cywieniu \u015bwiatowego handlu po kryzysie na Bliskim Wschodzie i pozostaj\u0105 jedn\u0105 z g\u0142\u00f3wnych przyczyn, dla kt\u00f3rych aktywno\u015b\u0107 gospodarcza utrzyma\u0142a si\u0119 na wy\u017cszym poziomie ni\u017c oczekiwano.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Firmy technologiczne i dzia\u0142aj\u0105ce w chmurze przeznaczaj\u0105 coraz wi\u0119cej kapita\u0142u na sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0119, a wydatki te wykraczaj\u0105 obecnie daleko poza chipy i oprogramowanie. Centra danych wymagaj\u0105 energii elektrycznej, system\u00f3w ch\u0142odzenia, grunt\u00f3w, prac budowlanych oraz przepustowo\u015bci sieci energetycznej, co sprawia, \u017ce przedsi\u0119biorstwa u\u017cyteczno\u015bci publicznej, firmy in\u017cynieryjne, w\u0142a\u015bciciele nieruchomo\u015bci i kredytodawcy staj\u0105 si\u0119 cz\u0119\u015bci\u0105 tego samego cyklu inwestycyjnego. Sztuczna inteligencja stwarza obecnie mo\u017cliwo\u015bci generowania zysk\u00f3w zar\u00f3wno w sektorze technologicznym, jak i infrastrukturalnym, jednocze\u015bnie poch\u0142aniaj\u0105c kapita\u0142, kt\u00f3ry wp\u0142ywa r\u00f3wnie\u017c na wycen\u0119 obligacji, nieruchomo\u015bci i innych aktyw\u00f3w.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OECD wyja\u015bnia r\u00f3wnie\u017c, \u017ce obecne wyceny sp\u00f3\u0142ek technologicznych opieraj\u0105 si\u0119 na za\u0142o\u017ceniu szybkiego wzrostu zysk\u00f3w, a jako potencjalne w\u0105skie gard\u0142a wskazuje sektor energetyczny oraz bran\u017c\u0119 zaawansowanych p\u00f3\u0142przewodnik\u00f3w. Firmy z bran\u017cy sztucznej inteligencji w coraz wi\u0119kszym stopniu polegaj\u0105 r\u00f3wnie\u017c na d\u017awigni finansowej i wi\u0119kszych programach finansowania. Je\u015bli osi\u0105gni\u0119cie zwrot\u00f3w potrwa d\u0142u\u017cej, ni\u017c oczekuj\u0105 inwestorzy, pogorszenie nastroj\u00f3w mo\u017ce rozprzestrzeni\u0107 si\u0119 na sektory in\u017cynierii, budownictwa, rynku kredytowego oraz szeroko poj\u0119tych rynk\u00f3w finansowych.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Obecne wyceny i plany inwestycyjne ju\u017c zak\u0142adaj\u0105 silny wzrost zysk\u00f3w, co pozostawia niewiele miejsca na ewentualny spadek wynik\u00f3w.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Co warto obejrze\u0107 do ko\u0144ca roku:<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> zyski i generowanie \u015brodk\u00f3w pieni\u0119\u017cnych, a nie plany wi\u0119kszych nak\u0142ad\u00f3w inwestycyjnych. Wzrost przychod\u00f3w, mar\u017ce i wzrost wydajno\u015bci poka\u017c\u0105, czy inwestycje w sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0119 przynosz\u0105 wystarczaj\u0105cy zwrot z ju\u017c zaanga\u017cowanego kapita\u0142u.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">05 P\u0142ynno\u015b\u0107 zyska\u0142a na warto\u015bci<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u0179r\u00f3d\u0142o: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/in\/en\/insights\/2026\/08\/q2-26-pulse-of-private-equity.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Globalna warto\u015b\u0107 transakcji w sektorze private equity wynios\u0142a oko\u0142o <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">$1 bilion w ramach 9 294 transakcji w pierwszej po\u0142owie 2026 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Sektor technologii, medi\u00f3w i telekomunikacji przyci\u0105gn\u0105\u0142 $354,7 mld, natomiast sektor energii i zasob\u00f3w naturalnych \u2013 $149,2 mld, odnotowuj\u0105c rekordowe tempo wzrostu.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG odnotowa\u0142o jedynie <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">1 315 transakcji wyj\u015bcia z inwestycji private equity w pierwszej po\u0142owie 2026 roku<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, co stanowi najni\u017cszy poziom od ponad dziesi\u0119ciu lat. \u0141\u0105czna kwota pozyskanych \u015brodk\u00f3w wynios\u0142a $261,8 mld w 315 funduszach, co jest wynikiem ni\u017cszym od rekordowego poziomu odnotowanego kilka lat wcze\u015bniej w tej dekadzie.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Fundusze prywatne nadal pobieraj\u0105 kapita\u0142 w ramach istniej\u0105cych zobowi\u0105za\u0144, nieruchomo\u015bci wymagaj\u0105 refinansowania, dzia\u0142aj\u0105ce przedsi\u0119biorstwa potrzebuj\u0105 inwestycji, a rodziny musz\u0105 wywi\u0105za\u0107 si\u0119 z obowi\u0105zk\u00f3w podatkowych i wyp\u0142at dywidend. Wolniejsze wyj\u015bcia z inwestycji oznaczaj\u0105, \u017ce z aktyw\u00f3w prywatnych nap\u0142ywa mniej \u015brodk\u00f3w pieni\u0119\u017cnych, podczas gdy w innych obszarach zapotrzebowanie na got\u00f3wk\u0119 ro\u015bnie.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u015arodki pieni\u0119\u017cne i instrumenty o kr\u00f3tkim terminie zapadalno\u015bci pozwalaj\u0105 zaspokoi\u0107 wezwanie do wniesienia kapita\u0142u bez konieczno\u015bci sprzeda\u017cy udzia\u0142\u00f3w po spadku warto\u015bci, sfinansowa\u0107 refinansowanie funduszu bez konieczno\u015bci sprzeda\u017cy kolejnych aktyw\u00f3w oraz da\u0107 rodzinie czas na poczekanie na korzystniejsze warunki.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Zamo\u017cna rodzina mo\u017ce posiada\u0107 znaczny maj\u0105tek, a mimo to boryka\u0107 si\u0119 z brakiem dost\u0119pnych \u015brodk\u00f3w pieni\u0119\u017cnych, gdy zbyt du\u017ca cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 jej maj\u0105tku jest zamro\u017cona w przedsi\u0119biorstwach, nieruchomo\u015bciach i prywatnych funduszach. Kluczow\u0105 warto\u015bci\u0105 jest nie tylko warto\u015b\u0107 netto maj\u0105tku, ale tak\u017ce to, jaka cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 pozostaje w formie p\u0142ynnej, gdy inna cz\u0119\u015b\u0107 bilansu wymaga \u015brodk\u00f3w finansowych.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Co warto obejrze\u0107 do ko\u0144ca roku:<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> wyp\u0142aty i wolumeny wycofywania \u015brodk\u00f3w. Je\u015bli wycofywanie \u015brodk\u00f3w b\u0119dzie nadal na niskim poziomie, do inwestor\u00f3w trafi mniej \u015brodk\u00f3w pieni\u0119\u017cnych, a problem z p\u0142ynno\u015bci\u0105 utrzyma si\u0119 do 2027 roku.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Co dotychczas pokaza\u0142 rok 2026<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Najwa\u017cniejszym zjawiskiem tego roku jest wzajemne wzmacnianie si\u0119 tych pi\u0119ciu czynnik\u00f3w. Rz\u0105dy, europejskie programy infrastrukturalne oraz firmy technologiczne inwestuj\u0105ce w sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0119 jednocze\u015bnie rywalizuj\u0105 o kapita\u0142, co powoduje utrzymywanie si\u0119 wysokich koszt\u00f3w finansowania w momencie, gdy inwestorzy private equity odzyskuj\u0105 coraz mniej \u015brodk\u00f3w. Inwestycje w sztuczn\u0105 inteligencj\u0119 wspieraj\u0105 r\u00f3wnie\u017c handel, ale je\u015bli zwroty z inwestycji oka\u017c\u0105 si\u0119 ni\u017csze od obecnych oczekiwa\u0144, skutki tego odczuj\u0105 r\u00f3wnie\u017c sektor infrastruktury, rynki kredytowe oraz p\u0142ynno\u015b\u0107 inwestor\u00f3w.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Fundusz prywatny musi obecnie uzasadni\u0107 zamro\u017cenie \u015brodk\u00f3w w sytuacji, gdy p\u0142ynne obligacje ju\u017c zapewniaj\u0105 znacz\u0105cy zwrot, podczas gdy wysoko wyceniane sp\u00f3\u0142ki technologiczne maj\u0105 mniejsz\u0105 swobod\u0119 w zakresie nieosi\u0105gni\u0119cia oczekiwanych wynik\u00f3w finansowych, gdy ich ekspansja zale\u017cy od dalszego finansowania. Rodziny posiadaj\u0105ce zad\u0142u\u017cenie zwi\u0105zane z prowadzon\u0105 dzia\u0142alno\u015bci\u0105 gospodarcz\u0105, nieruchomo\u015bciami i funduszami prywatnymi mog\u0105 odczuwa\u0107 t\u0119 sam\u0105 presj\u0119 finansow\u0105 jednocze\u015bnie w kilku obszarach bilansu.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Na co nale\u017cy zwr\u00f3ci\u0107 uwag\u0119 przed rokiem 2027<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Trzy wydarzenia dostarcz\u0105 inwestorom przed 2027 r. wi\u0119cej informacji ni\u017c kolejna prognoza na koniec roku.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Po pierwsze, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">d\u0142ugoterminowe stopy zwrotu<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Je\u015bli koszty finansowania d\u0142ugu pa\u0144stwowego utrzymaj\u0105 si\u0119 na wysokim poziomie lub jeszcze wzrosn\u0105, rynki nieruchomo\u015bci, kredyt\u00f3w, private equity oraz akcji o d\u0142ugim horyzoncie inwestycyjnym wkrocz\u0105 w rok 2027 z wy\u017csz\u0105 stop\u0105 zwrotu wymagan\u0105 do osi\u0105gni\u0119cia rentowno\u015bci.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Po drugie, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Powr\u00f3t sztucznej inteligencji<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Inwestycje okaza\u0142y si\u0119 ju\u017c na tyle du\u017ce, \u017ce maj\u0105 wp\u0142yw na globalny wzrost gospodarczy i handel. Zyski, wydajno\u015b\u0107 i przep\u0142ywy pieni\u0119\u017cne musz\u0105 teraz nad\u0105\u017cy\u0107 za wydatkami. S\u0142abe wyniki finansowe wywar\u0142yby dodatkow\u0105 presj\u0119 na wyceny i utrudni\u0142yby dalsze finansowanie.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Po trzecie, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Rachunek za energi\u0119 w Europie<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Prognoza EBC zak\u0142ada, \u017ce obecny wstrz\u0105s ust\u0105pi. Ni\u017csze ceny ropy, gazu i energii elektrycznej zmniejszy\u0142yby presj\u0119 inflacyjn\u0105 i u\u0142atwi\u0142yby pokrycie wydatk\u00f3w na obronno\u015b\u0107 i infrastruktur\u0119; wysokie ceny energii utrzyma\u0142yby koszty i presj\u0119 finansow\u0105 na wysokim poziomie, os\u0142abiaj\u0105c jednocze\u015bnie wzrost gospodarczy.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Prywatny maj\u0105tek mo\u017ce na papierze wydawa\u0107 si\u0119 zdywersyfikowany, a mimo to pozostawa\u0107 uzale\u017cniony od tych samych warunk\u00f3w finansowania. Akcje, nieruchomo\u015bci, fundusze prywatne i prowadzona dzia\u0142alno\u015b\u0107 gospodarcza mog\u0105 by\u0107 nara\u017cone na wy\u017csze koszty finansowania; ograniczenia handlowe mog\u0105 dotyczy\u0107 zar\u00f3wno sp\u00f3\u0142ek notowanych na gie\u0142dzie, jak i przedsi\u0119biorstw rodzinnych; ekspozycja na sektor sztucznej inteligencji mo\u017ce jednocze\u015bnie wyst\u0119powa\u0107 w indeksie akcji, funduszu infrastrukturalnym i portfelu kredytowym.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Pytanie, kt\u00f3re nasuwa si\u0119 przed rokiem 2027, brzmi: <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">w jakim stopniu maj\u0105tek tej rodziny nadal zale\u017cy od tego, by kapita\u0142 pozostawa\u0142 przyst\u0119pny cenowo i \u0142atwo dost\u0119pny.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><\/p><h3 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:14pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\" id=\"docs-internal-guid-0f3929a5-7fff-9e85-7b7c-9e730b882ef2\"><span style=\"font-size:13pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Bibliografia (APA)<\/span><\/h3><ul style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;\"><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Mi\u0119dzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u201eFiscal Monitor\u201d, kwiecie\u0144 2026 r.: Polityka fiskalna pod presj\u0105: wysokie zad\u0142u\u017cenie, rosn\u0105ce ryzyko.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Mi\u0119dzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/fm\/issues\/2026\/04\/15\/fiscal-monitor-april-2026?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/fm\/issues\/2026\/04\/15\/fiscal-monitor-april-2026<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OECD. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Prognoza gospodarcza OECD, raport okresowy z wrze\u015bnia 2026 r.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organizacja Wsp\u00f3\u0142pracy Gospodarczej i Rozwoju.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u015awiatowa Organizacja Handlu. (9 wrze\u015bnia 2026 r.). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Barometr towarowy wskazuje na stabilny wzrost handlu pomimo trudnych warunk\u00f3w.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> \u015awiatowa Organizacja Handlu.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/wtoi_09sep26_481_e.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/wtoi_09sep26_481_e.htm<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">NATO. (7 lipca 2026 r.). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Aktualno\u015bci dotycz\u0105ce inwestycji w obronno\u015b\u0107: rekordowe wydatki w Europie i Kanadzie.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organizacja Traktatu P\u00f3\u0142nocnoatlantyckiego.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/news-and-events\/articles\/news\/2026\/07\/07\/defence-investment-update-record-spending-in-europe-and-canada?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/news-and-events\/articles\/news\/2026\/07\/07\/defence-investment-update-record-spending-in-europe-and-canada<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">NATO. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Inwestycje w obronno\u015b\u0107 a zobowi\u0105zanie NATO w ramach programu 5%.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organizacja Traktatu P\u00f3\u0142nocnoatlantyckiego.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/introduction-to-nato\/defence-expenditures-and-natos-5-commitment\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/introduction-to-nato\/defence-expenditures-and-natos-5-commitment<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Europejski Bank Centralny. (10 wrze\u015bnia 2026 r.). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Decyzje dotycz\u0105ce polityki pieni\u0119\u017cnej.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Europejski Bank Centralny.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Europejski Bank Centralny. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Prognozy makroekonomiczne ekspert\u00f3w EBC dla strefy euro, wrzesie\u0144 2026 r.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Europejski Bank Centralny.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/projections\/html\/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/projections\/html\/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Raport \u2019Pulse of Private Equity\u201d za II kwarta\u0142 2026 r.: globalne spostrze\u017cenia.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> KPMG.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/in\/en\/insights\/2026\/08\/q2-26-pulse-of-private-equity.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/kpmg.com\/in\/en\/insights\/2026\/08\/q2-26-pulse-of-private-equity.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG. (27 lipca 2026 r.). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Globalny rynek private equity wykazuje odporno\u015b\u0107 \u2013 w pierwszej po\u0142owie 2026 r. warto\u015b\u0107 inwestycji w tym sektorze wynios\u0142a ponad $1 biliona.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> KPMG.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/xx\/en\/media\/press-releases\/2026\/07\/global-pe-market-shows-resilience-with-over-1-trillion-in-pe-investment-in-first-half-of-2026.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/kpmg.com\/xx\/en\/media\/press-releases\/2026\/07\/global-pe-market-shows-resilience-with-over-1-trillion-in-pe-investment-in-first-half-of-2026.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ul><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><br><\/p><br>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wsp\u00f3lnym czynnikiem oddzia\u0142uj\u0105cym na wszystkie pi\u0119\u0107 sektor\u00f3w jest wzrost cen i ograniczona dost\u0119pno\u015b\u0107 kapita\u0142u.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-wealth-planning"],"magazineBlocksPostFeaturedMedia":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-150x150.png","medium":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-300x200.png","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-768x512.png","large":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-1024x683.png","1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png","2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png","trp-custom-language-flag":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-18x12.png","colormag-highlighted-post":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-392x272.png","colormag-featured-post-medium":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-390x205.png","colormag-featured-post-small":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-130x90.png","colormag-featured-image":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-800x445.png","colormag-default-news":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-150x150.png","colormag-featured-image-large":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-1200x600.png"},"magazineBlocksPostAuthor":{"name":"William","avatar":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/82207cc30d613dea4e5fc4ce5dad6b48bc98e8cde6e3910b0adcb2b12199eab1?s=96&d=mm&r=g"},"magazineBlocksPostCommentsNumber":false,"magazineBlocksPostExcerpt":"The common pressure across all five forces is the rising price and tighter availability of capital.","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["Global Wealth Planning"],"magazineBlocksPostViewCount":268,"magazineBlocksPostReadTime":11,"magazine_blocks_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png",1200,800,false],"medium":["https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-300x200.png",300,200,true],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-150x150.png",150,150,true]},"magazine_blocks_author":{"display_name":"William","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/pl\/author\/william\/"},"magazine_blocks_comment":0,"magazine_blocks_author_image":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/82207cc30d613dea4e5fc4ce5dad6b48bc98e8cde6e3910b0adcb2b12199eab1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","magazine_blocks_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/pl\/category\/wealth-management\/global-wealth-planning\/\">Global Wealth Planning<\/a>","videoUrl":"","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Five Forces Shaping Wealth In 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The common pressure across all five forces is the rising price and tighter availability of capital.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/pl\/zarzadzanie-majatkiem\/globalne-planowanie-majatkowe\/piec-czynnikow-ksztaltujacych-bogactwo-w-2026-roku\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Five Forces Shaping Wealth In 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The common 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