{"id":1366,"date":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/uncategorized\/five-forces-shaping-wealth-in-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:00:33","slug":"les-cinq-forces-qui-faconneront-la-richesse-en-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/fr\/wealth-management\/global-wealth-planning\/five-forces-shaping-wealth-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Les cinq forces qui fa\u00e7onneront la richesse en 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/>\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n<style>body.single-post .cm-featured-image { display: none !important; }<\/style>\n\n<p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le ralentissement que de nombreux investisseurs redoutaient au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026 ne s\u2019est pas produit. La croissance mondiale a tenu bon, les \u00e9changes commerciaux continuent de progresser et les march\u00e9s boursiers restent favorables. Pourtant, l\u2019ann\u00e9e est devenue plus difficile \u00e0 d\u00e9crypter. Les gouvernements empruntent davantage, les taux \u00e0 long terme ont grimp\u00e9, l\u2019Europe consacre des sommes consid\u00e9rables \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense et aux infrastructures, l\u2019intelligence artificielle absorbe des capitaux dans plusieurs classes d\u2019actifs et les march\u00e9s priv\u00e9s peinent toujours \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des rendements suffisants pour les investisseurs. Le d\u00e9nominateur commun est le co\u00fbt et la disponibilit\u00e9 des capitaux.<\/span><\/p><h3 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:14pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:12pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u00c0 retenir<\/span><\/h3><ul style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;\"><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La croissance mondiale s'est av\u00e9r\u00e9e plus forte que pr\u00e9vu, mais le co\u00fbt des capitaux \u00e0 long terme a augment\u00e9. Les taux des obligations d'\u00c9tat \u00e0 trente ans dans six pays du G7 ont atteint leur plus haut niveau depuis au moins quinze ans, tandis que le FMI pr\u00e9voit que la dette publique mondiale atteindra 100 % du PIB d'ici 2029.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le commerce s'est r\u00e9orient\u00e9 plut\u00f4t que de reculer. Le barom\u00e8tre des \u00e9changes de marchandises de l'OMC s'est \u00e9tabli \u00e0 102,0 en septembre, un niveau sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la tendance et plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu'en juin, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la forte demande de composants li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'intelligence artificielle.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">L'Europe tente de financer la d\u00e9fense, les infrastructures et la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique alors que sa croissance \u00e9conomique est inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 1 % et que l'inflation est remont\u00e9e \u00e0 3 %.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">L'intelligence artificielle est pass\u00e9e du statut de th\u00e8me technologique \u00e0 celui de cycle de financement. Son d\u00e9veloppement soutient la croissance et les \u00e9changes commerciaux, mais les valorisations \u00e9lev\u00e9es, l'endettement accru et les d\u00e9penses d'investissement consid\u00e9rables ne laissent gu\u00e8re de marge de man\u0153uvre en cas de rendements d\u00e9cevants.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les fonds d'investissement continuent d'investir, mais les sorties restent rares. Cela renforce l'importance de la liquidit\u00e9 pour les familles qui ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 investi dans des actifs \u00e0 long terme.<br><br><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ul><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Au d\u00e9but de l'ann\u00e9e 2026, les risques \u00e9vidents \u00e9taient faciles \u00e0 \u00e9num\u00e9rer : droits de douane, dette publique, conflits g\u00e9opolitiques, faiblesse de la croissance europ\u00e9enne et cours \u00e9lev\u00e9s des valeurs technologiques. Neuf mois plus tard, plusieurs de ces craintes se sont av\u00e9r\u00e9es fond\u00e9es, sans pour autant entra\u00eener le ralentissement \u00e9conomique auquel beaucoup s'attendaient.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">L'OCDE pr\u00e9voit d\u00e9sormais que l'\u00e9conomie mondiale conna\u00eetra une croissance de <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">2,9 % cette ann\u00e9e<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. La croissance a fortement ralenti au premier semestre, mais le choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique au Moyen-Orient a eu moins de r\u00e9percussions n\u00e9gatives que ce que l'on craignait initialement, les pays ayant pu puiser dans leurs stocks, trouver des sources d'approvisionnement alternatives et recourir \u00e0 des mesures de soutien budg\u00e9taire. Les d\u00e9penses consacr\u00e9es \u00e0 l'intelligence artificielle ont soutenu l'investissement, l'industrie manufacturi\u00e8re et le commerce. La croissance s'est maintenue, mais les gouvernements, les entreprises et les investisseurs se financent d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">01 La dette publique entra\u00eene une r\u00e9\u00e9valuation du co\u00fbt du capital<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Source : <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/-\/media\/files\/publications\/fiscal-monitor\/2026\/april\/english\/text.pdf?\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Fonds mon\u00e9taire international<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La dette publique mondiale a atteint un peu moins de <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">94 % du PIB en 2025<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, et le FMI pr\u00e9voit d\u00e9sormais qu'il atteindra <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">100 % d'ici 2029<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, soit un an plus t\u00f4t que pr\u00e9vu l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re. Les d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense, les engagements sociaux, la politique industrielle strat\u00e9gique et la hausse des charges d'int\u00e9r\u00eats alourdissent encore la charge. Le conflit au Moyen-Orient a engendr\u00e9 des co\u00fbts suppl\u00e9mentaires sous forme de subventions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, de mesures de soutien budg\u00e9taire et d'un affaiblissement des finances publiques dans les \u00e9conomies les plus expos\u00e9es.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">L'OCDE indique que les taux des obligations d'\u00c9tat \u00e0 long terme ont atteint, dans de nombreuses \u00e9conomies, leurs plus hauts niveaux depuis <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">15 ans ou plus<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Les taux \u00e0 trente ans ont atteint ces niveaux dans six des \u00e9conomies du G7. Les inqui\u00e9tudes budg\u00e9taires expliquent en partie cette hausse, tandis que les \u00e9missions obligataires exceptionnellement importantes des entreprises technologiques constituent une source suppl\u00e9mentaire de demande de financement \u00e0 long terme.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat souverains se r\u00e9percute sur les pr\u00eats immobiliers, les emprunts d'entreprise, le cr\u00e9dit aux particuliers et le financement immobilier, tout en augmentant \u00e9galement le rendement exig\u00e9 par les investisseurs sur les fonds priv\u00e9s et les actions ; apr\u00e8s une d\u00e9cennie de monnaie bon march\u00e9, la question en 2026 n'est plus de savoir o\u00f9 investir davantage de capitaux, mais ce qu'un investissement offre de plus par rapport au rendement d\u00e9j\u00e0 disponible sur les actifs liquides.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u00c0 suivre d'ici la fin de l'ann\u00e9e :<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> les rendements des obligations d'\u00c9tat \u00e0 long terme, et pas seulement les taux directeurs. La hausse des co\u00fbts de refinancement r\u00e9duit la tr\u00e9sorerie des entreprises et des propri\u00e9taires immobiliers et fait baisser le prix que les investisseurs sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 payer pour leurs actifs.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">02 Les entreprises red\u00e9finissent les cha\u00eenes d'approvisionnement mondiales<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Source : <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/wtoi_09sep26_481_e.htm?\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Organisation mondiale du commerce<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les droits de douane n'ont pas entra\u00een\u00e9 le simple recul de la mondialisation auquel beaucoup s'attendaient. Le barom\u00e8tre du commerce des marchandises de l'OMC a atteint <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">102,0 en septembre<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, en hausse par rapport aux 101,7 enregistr\u00e9s en juin et au-dessus du seuil de 100 associ\u00e9 \u00e0 la croissance tendancielle. Le secteur des composants \u00e9lectroniques a affich\u00e9 le r\u00e9sultat le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, soutenu par la demande li\u00e9e aux investissements dans l'intelligence artificielle. Le commerce mondial de marchandises est rest\u00e9 plus solide que ne le laisse supposer le contexte politique.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les entreprises ont red\u00e9fini les circuits par lesquels s'effectue le commerce mondial. Elles multiplient les fournisseurs, r\u00e9orientent les exp\u00e9ditions, d\u00e9localisent les sites d'assemblage et rapprochent une partie de la production de leurs clients. Les restrictions \u00e0 l'exportation et les droits de douane bilat\u00e9raux continuent de perturber les cha\u00eenes d'approvisionnement, mais les entreprises pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent les r\u00e9organiser plut\u00f4t que de se retirer du commerce international. L'OCDE indique que le commerce de marchandises s'est redress\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la perturbation initiale li\u00e9e au conflit au Moyen-Orient, gr\u00e2ce notamment aux exp\u00e9ditions li\u00e9es \u00e0 l'IA en provenance d'Asie, tandis que le commerce hors IA a \u00e9galement commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 s'am\u00e9liorer.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le march\u00e9 d'origine d'une entreprise ne donne souvent qu'une id\u00e9e tr\u00e8s limit\u00e9e de la provenance de ses revenus, de ses co\u00fbts et de ses risques de financement. Une entreprise cot\u00e9e en France peut s\u2019approvisionner en Asie, vendre principalement aux \u00c9tats-Unis et s\u2019endetter en dollars ; une entreprise industrielle suisse peut d\u00e9pendre de composants import\u00e9s et de la demande de la zone euro. Des fonds portant des labels r\u00e9gionaux diff\u00e9rents peuvent n\u00e9anmoins d\u00e9tenir des entreprises expos\u00e9es aux m\u00eames fournisseurs, devises et march\u00e9s finaux.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le chiffre d'affaires, la production, les fournisseurs et les devises donnent une image plus pr\u00e9cise du risque g\u00e9ographique que la place boursi\u00e8re sur laquelle un titre est cot\u00e9. Les entreprises familiales constatent directement cette exposition dans leurs comptes : les droits de douane font grimper les co\u00fbts des intrants, modifient les d\u00e9cisions d'approvisionnement, r\u00e9duisent la demande ou diminuent les marges.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u00c0 suivre d'ici la fin de l'ann\u00e9e :<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> les exportations hors IA. Si celles-ci se renforcent, la croissance des \u00e9changes commerciaux s'\u00e9tendra au-del\u00e0 du cycle technologique ; si elles restent faibles, une grande partie de la reprise continuera de reposer sur la demande li\u00e9e \u00e0 l'IA.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">03 L'Europe d\u00e9pense avant m\u00eame que la croissance ne se soit redress\u00e9e<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Sources : <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/news-and-events\/articles\/news\/2026\/07\/07\/defence-investment-update-record-spending-in-europe-and-canada\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OTAN<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> et <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/projections\/html\/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.mt.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les pays europ\u00e9ens membres de l'OTAN et le Canada ont augment\u00e9 leurs d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense de base de pr\u00e8s de <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">20 % en termes r\u00e9els en 2025<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 l'engagement pris \u00e0 La Haye, les alli\u00e9s ont pour objectif d'allouer <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">3,5 % du PIB consacr\u00e9s \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense de base<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> et un autre <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">1,5 % pour des investissements plus importants dans les domaines de la d\u00e9fense et de la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 d'ici 2035<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Cinq pays alli\u00e9s devraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteindre le seuil de 3,5 % en 2026, tandis que 17 d'entre eux devraient respecter l'objectif plus large de 1,5 %.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les d\u00e9penses de d\u00e9fense concernent les communications, la cybers\u00e9curit\u00e9, la logistique, les ports, l'a\u00e9rospatiale, les capacit\u00e9s de production et l'\u00e9nergie, tandis que la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique passe par les r\u00e9seaux \u00e9lectriques, la production et le stockage. Les gouvernements soutiennent \u00e9galement les capacit\u00e9s industrielles strat\u00e9giques, apr\u00e8s des ann\u00e9es durant lesquelles l'Europe s'est davantage appuy\u00e9e sur les importations.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La BCE pr\u00e9voit que le PIB de la zone euro ne progressera que de <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">0,9 % en 2026<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, tandis que l'inflation s'\u00e9l\u00e8ve en moyenne \u00e0 <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">3,0 %<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> et atteint <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">3,6 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Les prix de gros de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, selon ses hypoth\u00e8ses de septembre, s'\u00e9l\u00e8vent en moyenne \u00e0 <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">108,7 \u20ac par MWh<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, soit plus de 21 \u20ac au-dessus des pr\u00e9visions de juin. Face \u00e0 la r\u00e9surgence des pressions inflationnistes, la BCE a relev\u00e9 ses trois taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat directeurs de 25 points de base le 10 septembre.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les sous-traitants du secteur de la d\u00e9fense, les gestionnaires de r\u00e9seaux, les groupes d'ing\u00e9nierie, les promoteurs d'infrastructures et certaines entreprises industrielles se disputent des march\u00e9s qui, il y a quelques ann\u00e9es encore, n'existaient pratiquement pas \u00e0 cette \u00e9chelle, tandis que les capitaux priv\u00e9s s'orientent vers ces m\u00eames secteurs, les \u00c9tats fortement endett\u00e9s ne pouvant financer eux-m\u00eames l'ensemble des projets.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les investisseurs doivent encore faire la distinction entre les contrats sign\u00e9s et les projets financ\u00e9s, d'une part, et les engagements politiques qui n'ont pas encore g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 de flux de tr\u00e9sorerie, d'autre part.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u00c0 suivre d'ici la fin de l'ann\u00e9e :<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> les commandes dans les secteurs de la d\u00e9fense et des infrastructures, ainsi que les co\u00fbts \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques. La hausse des commandes commencerait \u00e0 se r\u00e9percuter sur le chiffre d'affaires de l'entreprise, tandis que le co\u00fbt \u00e9lev\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 maintiendrait les co\u00fbts de financement et d'exploitation \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">04 Les co\u00fbts li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'IA s'\u00e9tendent bien au-del\u00e0 du domaine technologique<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Source : <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en\/full-report.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OCDE<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Selon l'OCDE, les investissements dans les centres de donn\u00e9es et les \u00e9quipements technologiques ont soutenu la croissance au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre aux \u00c9tats-Unis, au Canada et en Australie. Les fabricants de semi-conducteurs, notamment en Cor\u00e9e et au Japon, ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d'une hausse de leurs exportations, tout comme la Chine. Les produits li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'intelligence artificielle ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la reprise du commerce mondial apr\u00e8s le choc au Moyen-Orient et restent l'une des principales raisons pour lesquelles l'activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique a mieux r\u00e9sist\u00e9 que pr\u00e9vu.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les entreprises technologiques et celles sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es dans le cloud consacrent davantage de capitaux \u00e0 l\u2019IA, et ces d\u00e9penses d\u00e9passent d\u00e9sormais largement le cadre des puces \u00e9lectroniques et des logiciels. Les centres de donn\u00e9es n\u00e9cessitent de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, des syst\u00e8mes de refroidissement, des terrains, des travaux de construction et une capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9seau, ce qui int\u00e8gre les services publics, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u2019ing\u00e9nierie, les propri\u00e9taires immobiliers et les pr\u00eateurs dans un m\u00eame cycle d\u2019investissement. L\u2019IA g\u00e9n\u00e8re d\u00e9sormais des opportunit\u00e9s de rendement dans les secteurs de la technologie et des infrastructures, tout en absorbant des capitaux qui influencent \u00e9galement les cours des obligations, de l\u2019immobilier et d\u2019autres actifs.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">L'OCDE explique \u00e9galement que les valorisations actuelles des entreprises technologiques reposent sur l'hypoth\u00e8se d'une croissance rapide des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et identifie l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 et les semi-conducteurs de pointe comme des goulots d'\u00e9tranglement potentiels. Les entreprises du secteur de l'IA s'appuient en outre de plus en plus sur l'endettement et sur des programmes de financement de plus grande envergure. Si les rendements tardent \u00e0 se concr\u00e9tiser par rapport aux attentes des investisseurs, un climat de m\u00e9fiance pourrait se propager aux secteurs de l'ing\u00e9nierie, de la construction, du cr\u00e9dit et, plus largement, aux march\u00e9s financiers.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les valorisations actuelles et les plans d'investissement tablent d\u00e9j\u00e0 sur une forte croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, ce qui laisse peu de marge en cas de r\u00e9sultat inf\u00e9rieur aux pr\u00e9visions.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u00c0 suivre d'ici la fin de l'ann\u00e9e :<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> les r\u00e9sultats et la g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de tr\u00e9sorerie, et non pas des plans d'investissement plus ambitieux. La croissance du chiffre d'affaires, les marges et les gains de productivit\u00e9 permettront de d\u00e9terminer si les investissements dans l'IA g\u00e9n\u00e8rent un retour sur investissement suffisant par rapport aux capitaux d\u00e9j\u00e0 engag\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">05 La liquidit\u00e9 a pris de la valeur<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Source : <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/in\/en\/insights\/2026\/08\/q2-26-pulse-of-private-equity.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG<\/span><\/a><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La valeur totale des op\u00e9rations de capital-investissement \u00e0 l'\u00e9chelle mondiale a atteint environ <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">$1 billion r\u00e9partis sur 9 294 transactions au cours du premier semestre 2026<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Les secteurs de la technologie, des m\u00e9dias et des t\u00e9l\u00e9communications ont attir\u00e9 $354,7 milliards, tandis que ceux de l'\u00e9nergie et des ressources naturelles ont attir\u00e9 $149,2 milliards et affichaient un rythme record.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG n'a enregistr\u00e9 que <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">1 315 sorties de fonds de capital-investissement au premier semestre 2026<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">, soit le rythme le plus faible depuis plus d'une d\u00e9cennie. Les lev\u00e9es de fonds ont atteint $261,8 milliards r\u00e9partis entre 315 fonds, un chiffre inf\u00e9rieur aux sommets enregistr\u00e9s plus t\u00f4t dans la d\u00e9cennie.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les fonds priv\u00e9s continuent de faire appel aux capitaux pour honorer leurs engagements existants, les biens immobiliers doivent \u00eatre refinanc\u00e9s, les entreprises en activit\u00e9 ont besoin d'investissements et les familles doivent s'acquitter de leurs imp\u00f4ts et verser des dividendes. Le ralentissement des sorties de capital signifie que les actifs priv\u00e9s g\u00e9n\u00e8rent moins de liquidit\u00e9s, alors m\u00eame que les besoins de tr\u00e9sorerie augmentent ailleurs.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les liquidit\u00e9s et les instruments \u00e0 court terme permettent de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 un appel de fonds sans devoir proc\u00e9der \u00e0 une cession de participations \u00e0 la suite d'une baisse, de refinancer un fonds sans vendre un autre actif et de donner \u00e0 une famille le temps d'attendre de meilleures conditions.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Une famille fortun\u00e9e peut poss\u00e9der un patrimoine consid\u00e9rable et pourtant manquer de liquidit\u00e9s lorsque trop de ses actifs sont immobilis\u00e9s dans des entreprises, des biens immobiliers et des fonds priv\u00e9s. Ce qui importe, ce n\u2019est pas seulement la valeur nette du patrimoine, mais la part de celui-ci qui reste disponible lorsque d\u2019autres postes du bilan n\u00e9cessitent des liquidit\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u00c0 suivre d'ici la fin de l'ann\u00e9e :<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> les distributions et les volumes de sorties. Si les sorties restent faibles, les investisseurs recevront moins de liquidit\u00e9s et la crise de liquidit\u00e9 se prolongera jusqu'en 2027.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Ce que l'ann\u00e9e 2026 nous a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 jusqu'\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">L'\u00e9volution la plus importante de l'ann\u00e9e r\u00e9side dans la mani\u00e8re dont ces cinq forces se renforcent mutuellement. Les gouvernements, les programmes d'infrastructure europ\u00e9ens et les entreprises technologiques investissant dans l'IA se disputent tous les capitaux au m\u00eame moment, ce qui maintient les co\u00fbts de financement \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9, alors m\u00eame que les investisseurs en capital-investissement voient leurs rendements diminuer. Les investissements dans l\u2019IA soutiennent \u00e9galement le commerce, mais si les rendements s\u2019av\u00e8rent inf\u00e9rieurs aux attentes actuelles, les r\u00e9percussions se feront sentir sur les infrastructures, les march\u00e9s du cr\u00e9dit et la liquidit\u00e9 des investisseurs.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Un fonds priv\u00e9 doit d\u00e9sormais justifier le fait de laisser son argent immobilis\u00e9 alors que les obligations liquides offrent d\u00e9j\u00e0 un rendement significatif, tandis que les entreprises technologiques, dont les valorisations sont \u00e9lev\u00e9es, disposent d\u2019une marge de man\u0153uvre r\u00e9duite pour ne pas atteindre leurs pr\u00e9visions de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, leur expansion d\u00e9pendant d\u2019un financement continu. Les familles endett\u00e9es dans des entreprises en activit\u00e9, l\u2019immobilier et des fonds priv\u00e9s peuvent ressentir simultan\u00e9ment cette m\u00eame pression financi\u00e8re sur plusieurs postes de leur bilan.<\/span><\/p><h2 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:18pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:17pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Ce \u00e0 quoi il faut pr\u00eater attention avant 2027<\/span><\/h2><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Trois \u00e9volutions en diront davantage aux investisseurs d'ici 2027 qu'une \u00e9ni\u00e8me pr\u00e9vision de fin d'ann\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Tout d'abord, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">rendements \u00e0 long terme<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Si les co\u00fbts d'emprunt souverains restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s ou continuent d'augmenter, les secteurs de l'immobilier, du cr\u00e9dit, du capital-investissement et des actions \u00e0 longue dur\u00e9e d'\u00e9ch\u00e9ance aborderont l'ann\u00e9e 2027 avec un taux de rendement minimal plus \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Deuxi\u00e8mement, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Retours li\u00e9s \u00e0 l'IA<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Les investissements se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9s suffisamment importants pour influencer la croissance et les \u00e9changes mondiaux. Les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, la productivit\u00e9 et les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie doivent d\u00e9sormais rattraper leur retard par rapport aux d\u00e9penses. Des rendements faibles exerceraient une pression suppl\u00e9mentaire sur les valorisations et rendraient plus difficile l'obtention de nouveaux financements.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Troisi\u00e8mement, <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La facture \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de l'Europe<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">. Les pr\u00e9visions de la BCE tablent sur une att\u00e9nuation du choc actuel. Une baisse des prix du p\u00e9trole, du gaz et de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 r\u00e9duirait les pressions inflationnistes et faciliterait l'absorption des d\u00e9penses consacr\u00e9es \u00e0 la d\u00e9fense et aux infrastructures ; en revanche, des prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie maintiendraient les co\u00fbts et les pressions financi\u00e8res \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9, tout en affaiblissant la croissance.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Un patrimoine priv\u00e9 peut sembler diversifi\u00e9 sur le papier tout en restant soumis aux m\u00eames conditions de financement. Les actions, l\u2019immobilier, les fonds priv\u00e9s et une entreprise en activit\u00e9 peuvent tous \u00eatre expos\u00e9s \u00e0 des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s ; les restrictions commerciales peuvent concerner aussi bien les participations cot\u00e9es que les entreprises familiales ; l\u2019exposition \u00e0 l\u2019IA peut se retrouver simultan\u00e9ment dans un indice boursier, un fonds d\u2019infrastructure et un portefeuille de cr\u00e9dit.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">La question qui se pose d'ici 2027 est la suivante : <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">dans quelle mesure la fortune de la famille d\u00e9pend encore d'un capital abordable et facilement accessible.<\/span><\/p><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><\/p><h3 dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:14pt;margin-bottom:4pt;\" id=\"docs-internal-guid-0f3929a5-7fff-9e85-7b7c-9e730b882ef2\"><span style=\"font-size:13pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">R\u00e9f\u00e9rences (APA)<\/span><\/h3><ul style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;\"><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Fonds mon\u00e9taire international. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Fiscal Monitor, avril 2026 : Une politique budg\u00e9taire sous pression : dette \u00e9lev\u00e9e, risques croissants.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Fonds mon\u00e9taire international.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/fm\/issues\/2026\/04\/15\/fiscal-monitor-april-2026?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/publications\/fm\/issues\/2026\/04\/15\/fiscal-monitor-april-2026<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OCDE. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Perspectives \u00e9conomiques de l'OCDE, rapport interm\u00e9diaire de septembre 2026.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organisation de coop\u00e9ration et de d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomiques.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-september-2026_f751d02b-en.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Organisation mondiale du commerce. (9 septembre 2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le barom\u00e8tre des \u00e9changes commerciaux indique une croissance r\u00e9siliente du commerce malgr\u00e9 des vents contraires.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organisation mondiale du commerce.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/wtoi_09sep26_481_e.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/news_e\/news26_e\/wtoi_09sep26_481_e.htm<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OTAN. (7 juillet 2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le point sur les investissements dans la d\u00e9fense : des d\u00e9penses record en Europe et au Canada.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organisation du Trait\u00e9 de l'Atlantique Nord.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/news-and-events\/articles\/news\/2026\/07\/07\/defence-investment-update-record-spending-in-europe-and-canada?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/news-and-events\/articles\/news\/2026\/07\/07\/defence-investment-update-record-spending-in-europe-and-canada<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">OTAN. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Les investissements dans la d\u00e9fense et l'engagement \u00ab 5% \u00bb de l'OTAN.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Organisation du Trait\u00e9 de l'Atlantique Nord.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/introduction-to-nato\/defence-expenditures-and-natos-5-commitment\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/introduction-to-nato\/defence-expenditures-and-natos-5-commitment<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne. (10 septembre 2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">D\u00e9cisions de politique mon\u00e9taire.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Projections macro\u00e9conomiques de la BCE pour la zone euro, septembre 2026.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/projections\/html\/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/projections\/html\/ecb.projections202609_ecbstaff~8e340fc69d.en.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG. (2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u2019 Pulse of Private Equity \u00bb du 2e trimestre 2026 : perspectives mondiales.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> KPMG.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/in\/en\/insights\/2026\/08\/q2-26-pulse-of-private-equity.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/kpmg.com\/in\/en\/insights\/2026\/08\/q2-26-pulse-of-private-equity.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><li dir=\"ltr\" style=\"list-style-type:disc;font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;\" aria-level=\"1\"><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\" role=\"presentation\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">KPMG. (27 juillet 2026). <\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:italic;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">Le march\u00e9 mondial du capital-investissement fait preuve de r\u00e9silience, avec plus de $1 billion d'investissements au premier semestre 2026.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"> KPMG.<\/span><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#000000;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\"><br><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kpmg.com\/xx\/en\/media\/press-releases\/2026\/07\/global-pe-market-shows-resilience-with-over-1-trillion-in-pe-investment-in-first-half-of-2026.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" style=\"text-decoration:none;\"><span style=\"font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;color:#1155cc;background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:underline;-webkit-text-decoration-skip:none;text-decoration-skip-ink:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre;white-space:pre-wrap;\">https:\/\/kpmg.com\/xx\/en\/media\/press-releases\/2026\/07\/global-pe-market-shows-resilience-with-over-1-trillion-in-pe-investment-in-first-half-of-2026.html<\/span><\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ul><p dir=\"ltr\" style=\"line-height:1.3800000000000001;margin-top:12pt;margin-bottom:12pt;\"><br><\/p><br>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La pression commune aux cinq secteurs r\u00e9side dans la hausse des prix et la rar\u00e9faction des capitaux.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-wealth-planning"],"magazineBlocksPostFeaturedMedia":{"thumbnail":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-150x150.png","medium":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-300x200.png","medium_large":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-768x512.png","large":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-1024x683.png","1536x1536":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png","2048x2048":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png","trp-custom-language-flag":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-18x12.png","colormag-highlighted-post":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-392x272.png","colormag-featured-post-medium":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-390x205.png","colormag-featured-post-small":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-130x90.png","colormag-featured-image":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-800x445.png","colormag-default-news":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-150x150.png","colormag-featured-image-large":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-1200x600.png"},"magazineBlocksPostAuthor":{"name":"William","avatar":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/82207cc30d613dea4e5fc4ce5dad6b48bc98e8cde6e3910b0adcb2b12199eab1?s=96&d=mm&r=g"},"magazineBlocksPostCommentsNumber":false,"magazineBlocksPostExcerpt":"The common pressure across all five forces is the rising price and tighter availability of capital.","magazineBlocksPostCategories":["Global Wealth Planning"],"magazineBlocksPostViewCount":266,"magazineBlocksPostReadTime":11,"magazine_blocks_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c.png",1200,800,false],"medium":["https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-300x200.png",300,200,true],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/rotharia_image_20261005_cc654c-150x150.png",150,150,true]},"magazine_blocks_author":{"display_name":"William","author_link":"https:\/\/www.rotharia.com\/fr\/author\/william\/"},"magazine_blocks_comment":0,"magazine_blocks_author_image":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/82207cc30d613dea4e5fc4ce5dad6b48bc98e8cde6e3910b0adcb2b12199eab1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","magazine_blocks_category":"<a 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